Winds of Change Newsletter, December 2005     See sidebar for table of contents

Global energy needs will surge 50 percent by 2030 and prices will rise if capacity is not significantly increased, the International Energy Agency said Monday in its 2005 World Energy Outlook.

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will also climb, by 52 percent in the same period, the Paris-based agency predicted.

"These projected trends have important implications and lead to a future that is not sustainable from an energy-security or environmental perspective," said the agency's executive director. "'We must change these outcomes and get the planet onto a sustainable energy path."

…The agency also published an alternative energy scenario. If countries implement more environment-friendly policies, energy demand and carbon-dioxide emissions would be significantly lower, with overall global energy demand expanding 10 percent less than the business-as-usual scenario.

Demand for coal would then be a sharp 25 percent lower, while oil and gas export revenues in the Middle East and North Africa would fall by 21 percent. Renewable energy sources, such as hydro and solar, are then seen growing 27 percent with 16 percent lower carbon dioxide emissions.

Global warming model bodes dire future, scientists say

If humanity taps all known oil, gas and coal reserves for energy, plants and oceans will have trouble absorbing the growing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and temperatures will soar beyond current projections, virtually eliminating tundra, sea ice and cold climate forests, according to a study by Lawrence Livermore Lab researchers.

"So the reality may be worse," a leading climate scientist said. "We may not have seen the climate change today, but if we continue to emit fossil fuels as usual, I think we are headed for real severe climate consequences and the sooner we take action the better."